Effects are estimated using an event-study design: individuals diagnosed with the same condition in a later calendar year serve as a control group for those diagnosed earlier.
Mortality is an exception — later-year cohorts cannot serve as controls by construction. It is estimated via multivariate regression controlling for all 333 other diagnoses and an age polynomial.
Diagnosis graph — Links represent one-year Granger-causal relationships. For each diagnosis, a Lasso regression predicts the probability of receiving that diagnosis in year T+1 using indicators for all 334 diagnoses in year T, age, age², and permanent income tercile dummies. The link strength is the estimated increase in probability (in percentage points).
For full details see Crego et al. (2025).
| Effects explorer | Event-study plots by diagnosis, outcome & subgroup |
| Rank diagnoses | Rank by effect size, weighted or unweighted by incidence |
| Scatter plots | Cross-outcome or cross-group scatter across all 334 diagnoses |
| Diagnoses | ICD-10 correspondence, incidence & treatment setting |
| Diagnosis graph | Directed Granger-causal graph between diagnoses |
| Sex | Male or female, from Statistics Netherlands municipal registers |
| Age group | Category based on age in the year of diagnosis (e.g., 25–44) |
| Income | Permanent income tercile (low / medium / high), from lifetime labor earnings adjusted for age |
| Relative year | Years since diagnosis (Dx−1, Dx+0, Dx+1, …) |
Not all sex–age–income combinations are available for every outcome. For example, labor participation is not estimated for ages 65+; nursing home use is only available for ages 65+. Some estimates use aggregated groups (e.g., sex–age only, or full population).
| Medical expenses | Annual expenses under the Dutch basic health insurance scheme, in € |
| Mortality | Cumulative death indicator (1 if died in or before given year) |
| Physical limitations | Age-standardized index (1 SD = 1 unit); mapped from medicine use & expenditure to OECD functional limitation items |
| Mental limitations | Age-standardized index (1 SD = 1 unit); mapped to Kessler K10 distress scale items |
| Labor participation | 1 if main income source is employment earnings |
| Log labor earnings | Log of annual gross employment earnings (€) |
| Full disability | 1 if receiving WIA/WGA benefit at ≥ 80% assessed disability |
| Nursing home use | 1 if residing in a nursing home in the given year |
| Diagnosis group | Diagnosis | Estimate | Cohort-entry annual burden | CI low | CI high | p | Annual cases |
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